2020年3月14日 星期六

如果貨幣崩潰, 要重新出新貨幣時, 持實金是否最有利?

聽到好多坊間人們預言貨幣會有天崩潰, 其實, 我JJ係持開放態度, 始終都係對未來的一種預估啦! 當然, 如果貨幣一崩潰, 之後, 就需要重新出過新貨幣了.

不過, 如果用持有實金來應對將會來臨的貨幣崩潰, 這個是否可行? 這個能否在新貨幣中保有或增值原來貨幣中的價值呢?

我JJ本人對單單持有實金, 就不表樂觀!!! 為什麼? 

講一個我朋友家族裡的小故事, 在一百年前本是有個錢呢! 1914-1918年歐戰打到歐洲爛溶溶, 當時雖然中國軍閥混戰, 但南方廣東尚算十分穩定, 咁就有好多人來到香港, 娶妻後的後裔改中國姓, 再加上港英政府大力扶持歐亞混血兒下, 他們生意做得不錯呀! 

有了錢之後, 就去同屬英治的南洋, 買農地買橡膠園, 做往來中國和南洋之間的貿易, 之後, 當然是珠光寶氣啦! 就有好多實金, 當時並沒有黃金CERTIFICATE咖喎! 全部都係實金呀, 聽說臨打二戰前, 已經講緊幾萬兩的黃金儲備, 加上銀行裡的無數英磅和法朗(當時美金還未是世界儲備貨幣), 就算用70年代金價來計價, 家族裡人人都已經打拐腳唔憂兩餐呀! 

只是一個太平洋戰爭, 日本軍國主義者一來到, 就把一切糧食和資源都控制了, 私人不能自己藏有呀! 再廢止使用港幣, 改用日皇軍票. 

最壞的歲月裡, 朋友家族中有人用一條金條, 去換一煲粥回來與家人充飢, 7個新生兒中, 只有2個存活到童年. 更恐怖的, 有次拿金條去換熟食肉, 竟然發現肉中有一小段的小兒小手指頭. 

大家諗諗, 當貨幣一崩潰, 要重新再出新貨幣時, 即係同揸現兜兜錢錢果D, 來個財富再分配, 果時D人點會咁順灘呀? 一定打起上來啦! 情況會否好似打日本仔果時咁? 先係控制哂D資源, 包括銀紙實金, 綿紗, 糧食, 生產這些一切的生產力, 之後, 就係每一個人的勞動力了.

我每次一想起這個故事, 我就會問, 揸實金有用嗎? 所以, 我JJ一向認為呢....... 西瓜靠邊大呀! 一定要企係人強馬壯/多野食/多資源果一邊喎! 

好啦, 話說到現在的情況了, 嗱..... 我JJ前牌唔係去買左金仔啦, 不過, 我的腳步並不會停係金仔, 因為我根本就唔相信金仔, 會可以保本保命喎!

在現代裡, 點樣先至係西瓜靠邊大呢嗄? 買大企業股票, 同D有錢有勢的人, 結成命運共同體. 當然, 唔一定係科企啦, 仲可以係油企呀! 糧企呀! 礦企呀! 藥企呀! 

好啦, 大家在今後的熊市裡, 大約都唔洗我JJ講咁多, 知道要點做了...... 一定去靠站在那些最先反彈復甦/人強馬壯/多野食/多資源的人們那邊. 

PS: 唉, 一睇疫症下, 邊個物資最唔短缺, 情況最少大檸樂的, 就唔係最先反彈復甦/人強馬壯/多野食/多資源的那邊囉! 所以, 疫症下, 大家金睛火眼昅實邊個可以俾我地靠邊站呀! 之後就要買定來手呀! 哈哈哈.....








5 則留言:

  1. Hello JJ, I have some emergency issue need your helpl. I am renting a Montreal house for the second year but this year the rental term is 11 months and my plan is to leave by June. However, due to coronovirus, I decided to leave earlier in Mar. I would like to know if I need to pay the full rent till June to the landlord? As I read the lease term, if the period is less than 12 months, it only requires one month notice. I would like to seek your advice.
    Thanks a lot
    pigpig

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    1. ok..... the 1 month notice is just applied to the non-renewal notice of the rental term.

      By Quebec rental laws, any rental term (even without lease)will be automatically renewed itself if there is no written notice for the termination of the term. For all the leased rental of more than 1 year, 3-6 months of advanced notice of termination will be required, 1 months advanced notice for no lease or less than 1 yr lease.

      Since your lease is 11 months, then you need to notify the landlord at least one month before the term expired, that means you need to notify your landlord for non-renewal rental before the end of May.

      You still need to pay until the end of your rental term, that means you have to pay until June.

      Besides this, since it is your second term, your landlord might had sent you a notice of renewal or rent amount adjustment last year, you must be notified that the length of second term was 11 months or 12 months. If the second term in the rental notice is 12 months, then you may have to pay until July. Please take a look on the second term notice or lease.

      Also, you always can negotiate with your landlord for a earlier departure of the rental property, some landlord may be able to find a new tenant earlier, and let you depart earlier. Most important, you start to tell your landlord as soon as possible, and let him find a new tenant.

      Last, please be remembered, written notice of lease termination is necessary, no oral notice!!!!

      I wish good luck to you, things will be working well for you.

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  2. Hi JJ, a million thanks for your reply. Our second term is 11 months so it should be end by June. Regarding negotiation with the landlord, I would like to ask how it practically works because I will be leaving very soon and if the landlord is not able to find a new tenant before I leave, then should I still need to pay the landlord full lease till the end of June before I leave?

    For the notice of lease termination, if it ends out that I leave by March and pay the landlord the full lease till June, should I write down this in detail in the notice?

    And one curious thing, haha, if I pay the full lease till June, the landlord is not allowed to rent out the till June, right?

    Btw, not sure you remember me or not, I think more than two years before I need to come to Montreal, I write to you about issues in Montreal and now I am leaving and need your help agaim :)

    Thank you so much and wish you and your family good health.

    pigpig

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    1. Theoretically, you can sublet your lease, and let the landlord know when you found one, but that means you will have to be responsible for the rent and maintaining the original condition of the rental property.

      If you can find a responsible person to move in for the rest of the term, then you can avoid paying the rent when you are not here. You can also provide a month free for attracting a good sub-tenant.

      Of course, you need to send a termination notice by registered mail, that can avoid automatical renewal of the lease, and let the sub-tenant to write a new lease with the landlord.

      But this is more risky, an irrespsonsible sub-tenant may cost you more than April+may+June rent.

      If you know this sub-tenant is very good, then you also can propose the landlord to sign a new lease with this subtenant, in this way, you are off from the responsibility

      Since you leave on March, and you won't come back on June for returning the keys, you better return the keys and checked with the landlord whenever you leave.

      There is no point to stop the landlord renting to a new tenant before June. It may cost you more to come back again.

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  3. Hi JJ, thanks a lot for your help. I have returned home even though I am under quarantine now.

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